FLOOD FORECAST (ALERT )FOR SUTLEJ RIVERAccording to present Hydro-Meteorological situation & rains observed in the upper catchment areas of River Sutlej, Ganda Singh Wala (Kasur District) may attain a LOW FLOOD level during the period from 1200 PST of 26th September-2010 to 1800 PST of 27th September-2010 ranging between 50,000 to 60,000 cusecs (Approximately Gauge 18 – 19 feet ).
This may create inundation in low lying areas of river Sutlej. The inhabitants in the river bed around the districts of Kasur, Okara and Pakpattan may affect. It is requested that concerned authorities may take precautionary measures to warn the people residing in the river bed.
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST FOR RIVER INDUS AT KOTRI
According to prevailing hydrological conditions the 2nd Flood wave is passing from Kotri and River is maintaining Exceptionally High Flood level with inflow of 964897 Cusecs. It may further rise during next 36-hours. The sustained peak at Kotri may last for next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter it may start falling and is likely to remain between 7,00,000 to 9,00,000 Cusecs during subsequent 7 to 9 days and around 6,00,000 Cusecs for subsequent one week.
Under this scenario, the inundation and riverine Flooding is expected at low lying areas of Sajawal, MirpurBataro, MirpurSakro, JhangShahi, AllahRakhio, ShadadKot , Jamshoro, Matiari, Makaro, Ketibander, Shahbander in Thatta and Hyderabad Districts along with the river bed.
All concerned authorities are requested to take precautionary measures to avoid loss of human lives and property.
Flood Alert for Sutlej Ravi and Chenab Rivers
Sutlej River
According to Indus Water Treaty, India shall inform Pakistan when the release of water from Ferozepur down stream increases to 50,000 Cusecs or more. India has not yet informed Pakistan regarding the release of such quantity of water from Ferozepur. The slight rise in water at Ganda Singh Wala is only due to rains in the lower catchments of Sutlej below Bhakra dam. As such the water in Sutlej is likely to remain around 50,000 Cusecs in next 2-days.
River Ravi
The rains in the area below Madhopur headworks and in the Catchment of Nullahs of River Ravi (Deg, Bein, Kethar, Ujh, Basanter) have caused a slight increase in the inflow at Jassar and Shahdara. However, the situation is not dangerous. According to Indus Treaty, India shall inform Pakistan when they release the water from Madhopur headworks more than 30,000 Cusecs and they have not yet informed. Therefore it is presumed that the flow in River Ravi shall remain below low flood level i.e. 40,000 Cusecs.
River Chenab
The prevailing metrological conditions suggest that the chances of heavy rains in the Catchments of river Chenab are minimum during next 2-days. Therefore there is no imminent danger of any flood in river Chenab. However some rain may cause slightly increased flow in river Chenab, which may not be taken as dangerous situation. The flow shall remain at low flood level (around 1,00,000 Cusecs)
According to prevailing hydrological conditions the Flood wave is passing from Kotri and River has attained Exceptionally High Flood level at Kotri with inflow 8,37,982 Cusecs at 1200 PST. It will continue rising and is likely to attain Flood level ranging between 8,50,000 to 9,00,000 Cusecs during next 24-hours. The River Indus at Kotri shall maintain and sustain peak, which is expected to last 4 to 5 days.
Inflow between 7,00,000 to 8,00,000 Cusecs would last for subsequent 5 to 8 days and around 6,00,000 Cusecs for another subsequent 10 days at least.
Under this scenario, the inundation and riverine Flooding is expected at low lying areas of Sajawal , MirpurBataro, MirpurSakro, JhangShahi ,AllahRakhio, ShadadKot , Jamshoro, Matiari, Makaro, Ketibander, Shahbander in Thatta and Hyderabad Districts along with the river bed.
All concerned authorities are requested to take precautionary measures to avoid loss of human lives and property.
FLOOD WARNING AND FORECAST ALERT REPORT PAKISTAN 2010
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